What Winter 2026-27 could bring
Winter 2026-27 could bring a higher risk of some weather conditions compared to the long term averages. This does not mean the conditions are going to happen, instead, it means that there is an increased probability.
There are several reasons for this situation:
- A record El Nino has already hit record breaking levels, and the NOAA expect further strengthening, with a strong to very strong event more than 83% likely to last to January-March.
- A sudden stratospheric warming may be developing, which would be exceptionally early for the season. Many ECMWF model runs show a brief wind reversal, but it’s not certain.
What this means:
| Possibility | Why it could happen | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Stormy, wet first half | A slightly higher chance of westerlies and low pressure from October to December | Jet stream position and Atlantic storm tracks |
| Colder spells in late winter | A slightly higher risk of easterlies, northerlies and cold snaps in early 2027 | Northern blocking and the polar vortex |
| Early-season SSW effects | Effects can reach our weather within two to six weeks, weakening the jet stream and encouraging blocking | Whether it happens, then whether it filters down |
| Mild, unsettled or mixed | UK impacts can’t be confidently predicted, and a very large El Niño may behave differently from smaller ones | Whether any of the above actually develops |
It is worth noting that El Nino only nudges the odds, and any long-term warning has a bigger effect on UK temperatures than any single El Nino event. It’s the same for sudden stratospheric warming events, the result depends on where high pressure sets up, and it could simply bring frosty, foggy, cold weather.
Suggested idea: when you see a viral headline, use IMBER's model comparison feature to check whether our models also suggest that event for your location.IMBER will regularly be looking at charts and models, and posting insights throughout the season. We’ll label each update as low, medium or high confidence, and review what we got right and wrong. You can also use IMBER’s comparison feature to see models side by side, giving you a better picture.